Asteroid’s chances of hitting Earth in 2032 just got higher – but don’t panic the Nasa says. Space rock (2024 YR4) now has 2.3% risk of collision – up from 1.3% in December and is estimated 3 on the Torino Scale. A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.

The Torino Scale, adopted by the IAU in 1999, is a tool for categorizing potential Earth impact events. An integer scale ranging from 0 to 10 with associated color coding, it is intended primarily to facilitate public communication by the asteroid impact hazard monitoring community. The scale captures the likelihood and consequences of a potential impact event, but does not consider the time remaining until the potential impact. More extraordinary events are indicated by a higher Torino Scale value.

Another asteroid, Asteroid 99942 Apophis is a near-Earth object (NEO) estimated to be about 1,100 feet (335 meters) across. When it was discovered in 2004, Apophis was identified as one of the most hazardous asteroids that could impact Earth. But that impact assessment changed after astronomers tracked Apophis, and its orbit became better determined. Apophis quickly gained notoriety as an asteroid that could pose a serious threat to Earth when astronomers predicted that it would come uncomfortably close in 2029. Thanks to additional observations of Apophis, the risk of an impact in 2029 was later ruled out, as was the potential impact risk posed by another close approach in 2036. Until March 2021, however, a small chance of impact in 2068 still remained. When Apophis made a distant flyby of Earth around March 5, 2021, astronomers took the opportunity to use powerful radar observations to refine the estimate of its orbit around the Sun with extreme precision, enabling them to confidently rule out any impact risk in 2068 and long after.